Bitcoin (BTC) Price Reset Amid Net Position Changes: On-Chain Analysis
Bitcoin (BTC) price may have officially reached a “reset” after a significant increase in net position changes among long-term holders. Historically, increases in this indicator have helped price recoveries. But will it be the same this time? In this on-chain analysis, we examine this possibility.
$20 Billion in Funding for Bitcoin Hodlers
Data from Glassnode shows that net position changes among long-term Bitcoin holders have been increasing since July 22. Today, the indicator, which tracks 30-day changes in supply to long-term holders, hit its highest level since January 2020. Long-term holders purchased 334,358 BTC today, valued close to $20 billion. This confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term potential has historically resulted in significant price increases.
While history doesn’t repeat itself exactly, patterns tend to rhyme. If the surge in long-term holder supply impacts Bitcoin similarly, a breakout could occur in the medium to long term. However, the gains may not be as massive as seen previously, given Bitcoin’s current price at $58,579.
In the short term, the Miners Position Index (MPI) falling to its lowest level since last week indicates that miners are holding back on selling. This could help Bitcoin avoid further declines and potentially break above $60,000.
The Bull Market Ready to Take the Buying Trigger
The exchange stablecoin ratio, at its lowest level since February 2023, indicates significant purchasing power in the market. This suggests that market participants have the capability to push prices higher, supporting the idea that Bitcoin’s bottoming period is nearly over.
According to CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler, the current bottom range looks healthy, with investors taking profits without panic selling. Realized losses exceeding gains often signal the end of a bottoming period.
Bitcoin Price Prediction: $63,000 Could be the Next Target
From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin is currently trading below its 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), suggesting a possible bearish trend. However, a brief price increase could push Bitcoin above the 200 EMA, potentially reaching $60,536.
If the MACD turns positive and the 12 EMA crosses the 26 EMA, a bullish trend may emerge, leading Bitcoin to rise to $63,237. Conversely, a bearish crossover could result in a drop to $54,491.
