Preparing for the Potential Tropical Storm Debbie
(CNN)—— The eerie calm over the Atlantic basin following historic Hurricane Beryl is about to be shattered. It’s been more than three weeks since deadly Beryl finally made landfall in Texas. Since then, dry, dusty air has helped the Atlantic remain hurricane-free. But a clutter of showers and thunderstorms in the eastern Caribbean is expected to experience favorable atmospheric conditions this weekend and develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm. The next tropical storm to form would be named Debbie.
Favorable Atmospheric Conditions and Potential Development
The system will move along the northern Caribbean Sea into Friday before emerging near the Bahamas or Florida early this weekend. Its exact path through the Caribbean Sea will determine when the tropical system forms. If it interacts with the destructive mountainous terrain of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and eastern Cuba, it may have difficulty organizing enough to be considered a tropical depression or storm. A tropical wave might organize more quickly if it passes over the northern part of the island and avoids the terrain.
Factors Influencing the Storm’s Path and Strength
Unusually warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico could increase the strength of the system wherever and whenever it forms. It’s unclear what path the system will take. An area of strong high pressure over the Atlantic Ocean could steer the cyclone anywhere from the eastern Gulf of Mexico to the southeastern U.S. coast over the weekend, but its early strength, or lack thereof, will influence the cyclone’s direction. The faster organization occurs, the more likely it is that the cyclone will curve north faster and follow a path over the Bahamas and southeastern United States. A more chaotic system could move farther west and approach the Gulf before curving north.
August typically marks the start of the most active part of hurricane season, as ocean waters are very warm and damaging upper-level winds and dry, dusty air fade away. But ocean temperatures on both sides of the Atlantic have been extraordinary this season and have proven their mettle. In early July, Beryl was able to become the earliest Category 5 hurricane ever recorded, in part because the waters in the Caribbean were as warm as normal during the peak of hurricane season.
Parts of the Caribbean and Atlantic Ocean are now as warm or warmer than they typically are in early October when ocean heat peaks. Warmer oceans are a major consequence of global warming caused by fossil fuel pollution and provide fuel for tropical systems to explode at an alarming rate. Unusual ocean heat is one reason forecasters are calling for an unusually active hurricane season.
The development of La Niña and its subsequent lack of damaging upper-level winds (called wind shear) over the Atlantic are other causes. The season got off to a near-average start when Tropical Storm Alberto formed in mid-June, which is a typical time for the first named storm of the season. But when Beryl came back to life at the end of the month, any signs of normality quickly disappeared.
According to the NHC, the first hurricane of the season usually forms around August 11, and the first Category 3 or stronger hurricane forms around September 1. Beryl eliminates both time frames. In addition to Alberto and Beryl, the basin also produced short-lived Tropical Storm Chris.
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